November 2008 Donation Present

[TCStarwind]

A bit late for the discussion, but... The only thing I really like from this month's DPs is the aviator jacket. It's cute, but seeing as how I'll probably never use it, my chances from getting it from an actual DP (not that I have any money, anyway) are about 0%, and I'm not shelling out 10mill to buy the thing in user shops, I'll have to go withouth. :/

[Iggy]

Honestly, if we always got beautiful, sought-after DPs out of the box, it would be soooo boring. I like the gamble, you either win, or lose.

You can't win them all. And, I wouldn't want to get only wearables, I don't use female wigs, lipsticks and such. So, it's items I have to sell, most of the time.


When you open a DP...you shouldn't expect to get a 10M item all the time. This is the point of DPs, have more desirable items, and less desirable ones. If they gave out wearables all the times, or really expensive items, the DPs would soar even further, and all of the opened items would be worth less than the unopened DP.

[Jessi]

I don't think anyone is saying the boxes shouldn't have a variety of items that are more or less desirable, Iggy - but there are a lot of items that don't seem like they should be in a DP. When its only the third day of the month and some items have already dropped to 200k, I think it's a sign that maybe they weren't appropriate for donation presents.

[Wingsrising]

Honestly, if we always got beautiful, sought-after DPs out of the box, it would be soooo boring. I like the gamble, you either win, or lose.

Well, yes, we all know that opening DPs is a gamble.

However, if a gamble is too unfavorable, people don't want to play anymore.

Personally, the gamble aspect is why I never buy DPs anymore, not even when they gave me 250 cash shop points for free (whereas I've bought numerous Mysterious Costume Trunks). Other people's mileage obviously varies, but if the ratio of low-priced to high-priced items is too high, you're better off not taking the gamble.

I think this month in particular buying a 1-month GA medal, selling it, and buying the DPs you want with the proceeds has a higher expected value than buying a DP.

EDIT:

Actually, since I'm a nerd and procrastinating writing a test, I did the math. At this moment, and assuming the items sell at these prices (which is a BIG if) the expected value of buying a donation present is 2.77 million sP, which is about right if you figure 1 million sP for $1. (That's assuming an equal probability of getting all the items, of course.) The probability of getting an item that's in shops for 2.5 million or more is 40%, the probability of getting an item that's in shops for less than 1 million (there's nothing in between) is 60%. (Though I must say, good luck getting 3 million for a cupcake, even a wearable cupcake.)

You'd still get a better return on your money buying a GA medal, which is in in shops for 7.3 million. That's a rate of return significantly higher than 1 million sP per $1, is a guaranteed rather than risky return, and my experience in the past is that GA medals are usually easy to sell.

[Iggy]

(Though I must say, good luck getting 3 million for a cupcake, even a wearable cupcake.)

I sold one for 3-4 millions or so.
You just need to sell at the right moment.

If you want MONEISNAOW, don't open your DPs. They easily sell for 4M during all the month, now. Therefore, you get more money that with a GA.

I think it's a sign that maybe they weren't appropriate for donation presents.

Can you tell me what kind of item dropped the most? The beanbag surely did. However, some people do like and collect beanbags, and it would suck for collectors if there were no DP beanbags anymore. Ditto with minions and plushies.

[Wingsrising]

If you want MONEISNAOW, don't open your DPs. They easily sell for 4M during all the month, now. Therefore, you get more money that with a GA.

You know, I'd forgotten you can sell the things unopened. Yup, that's the best option of all, regardless of whether what you really want is money or the prize itself: the EV of selling it unopened is WAY higher than the EV of opening it just now.

In fact, that may be what I end up doing with my 250 free cash shop points...

I was going to say that waiting and selling the thing later would be an even better option if you had the patience, and it would... but a quick glance suggests the price of the unopened DP doesn't go up as much as I would expect.

I think it's a sign that maybe they weren't appropriate for donation presents.

Can you tell me what kind of item dropped the most? The beanbag surely did. However, some people do like and collect beanbags, and it would suck for collectors if there were no DP beanbags anymore. Ditto with minions and plushies.

Dunno why it would suck, provided that the beanbags and plushies still get made.

When I made my calculations earlier today the Nico beanbag and the Autumn Leaf Sticker were the lowest, at less than 400k each.

[Jessi]

I also don't know why it would suck - the beanbags would still be released in other ways. Maybe I wouldn't care so much if they were appealing beanbags, but lately all we've gotten are beanbags of NPCs.. hardly exciting as a DP. Less than 400k is still a ridiculous price for a 3-day-old cash shop item, no matter how you look at it - especially when other items from the same cash shop box are going for over 10 mil.

Yes, DPs should be a gamble, but that's a little extreme.

[AngharadTy]

I know I'm pretty happy when there aren't any bone items in the DPs. That means I have a better chance of getting them when they are released, hehe. People here often say things like "I got off easy this month!" so, really, needing items from DPs is not the preferred state of being. In fact, when the Rumi Beanbag came out, I was really irked--I didn't want to have to buy it as a DP just because the NPC wears a skull sticker. (But then Jessi gave me one. So that solved itself really well! =D)

The other problem with having a bunch of inexpensive DPs (what we generally call duds) in one month is that the other ones end up costing more. I want the aviator jacket (it's in GY colors!), but not so much that I'd spend 9M on it. Of course, it could be hard to say because wearable prices in general are pretty high lately. But it seems to happen to the "good" presents every month where there's a lot that no one wants.

I was glad the Tornado Blade was a bit of a "dud," though! I wanted that badly enough to spend 500k on it midmonth.

[Iggy]

You know, I'd forgotten you can sell the things unopened. Yup, that's the best option of all, regardless of whether what you really want is money or the prize itself: the EV of selling it unopened is WAY higher than the EV of opening it just now.

I giggled at that. SRYIMAMEANHAG.

Well, take the makeup case. There were only three-four desirable makeups in there. The others one are all below 1M. Is it because there are too many makeups (There are 21) Nope. It's just because people like the white-based one more than the darker, will favorise skulls to animals or witches.

I got three Body Henna Kits in a row, opening DPs last month, and the odds of opening three times the same thing in a row are...well, low. I hate getting the same DP more than once, and I hate only getting wearables, especially GIRLY wearables. I do like some plushies (Harvest last month, Autumn Leaf Beanbag in September...) and beanbags a lot more than I like most wearables. Like wigs. I don't care for most wigs.

[Jessi]

Yeah, but the difference is you got 3 body henna kits, and those are still worth about 8-9 million. Usually the plushies/beanbags/what have you drop in price majorily and are easily affordable. I think mots people would rather pay in pure SP for that kind of item than get a DP worth 3-4 mil and get that out of it - like I mentioned earlier. I got the donut this month. Did I need it? Sure, Galena wanted it. Does that mean I'd like to get it out of a DP? Hell no.

[Iggy]

Yeah, but the difference is you got 3 body henna kits, and those are still worth about 8-9 million.

So, if I got three Bawwwks, it would be justified to complain? Because I got three out of four this month

Jessi, I don't think DPS are something that should be fair and equal. There should be, in my eyes, at least one item of each of the major groups in each DP. That includes weapons, beanbags, stickers and plushies

[Jessi]

I don't understand why you're singling me out O_o But whatever.

ETA - I'm cranky now, but I thought I'd throw this in. The point is, DPs are in many ways a ripoff. Why should someone spend $2.50 and take a huge gamble getting one of 15-or-so items - when one might be worth 15 mil and one might be worth 100k - when they can, say spend $5 and pick which costume trunk they WANT? Or spend the same amount to pick out a wig they want, rather than having to open a bunch of costume trunks, hoping they'll get the wig inside? I guarantee without ever looking at Subeta's sales that the amount they made on costume trunks went WAY up once they started letting people pick what they wanted instead. If they want people to spend real money on the site, they need to make it worth it. Right now, spending that much when you have a high chance of getting an item that will be rather worthless is NOT worth it. It doesn't matter what each individual person LIKES. What matters is the overall resale value. Sure. Some people think its worth spending $2.50 (or in SP, 4 mil) to get an item worth 300k. But I'm willing to guess that they're a huge minority compared to the people who do NOT want to cough up any cash to get something that is going to be worth so little.

It's not about getting which item you like. it's about smart economics and sales - this is not smart.

[Kamil]

It's not about getting which item you like. it's about smart economics and sales - this is not smart.

Yeah, that. I think there are two separate conversations going on here: one about whether or not Subeta should try and cater to all the interest groups with the contents of their DPs, and another about whether or not it makes financial sense for them to attempt to do so.

Jessi made an excellent point about costume trunks versus DPs. I wonder if DP sales would go up if one could choose to open them for a random selection of clothing items, OR a random selection of minions or plushie/beanbag items or stickers and whatever.

Personally, I think it would make it much easier to decide to buy one (and again, economic decisions regarding disposable income, for Americans, at least, are so not what they were even a month ago) and might, given that I think most people would go for the minions and wearables, raise the value of all of the other types of items as well, since I doubt there'd be as many as there are now. It would still be a random choice, but people would, I think, be more likely to spend what frivolous income they have since they'd have some measure of choice in what type bang they'd be getting for their buck.

[shaelyn76]

It's not about getting which item you like. it's about smart economics and sales - this is not smart.

Yeah, that. I think there are two separate conversations going on here: one about whether or not Subeta should try and cater to all the interest groups with the contents of their DPs, and another about whether or not it makes financial sense for them to attempt to do so.

Jessi made an excellent point about costume trunks versus DPs. I wonder if DP sales would go up if one could choose to open them for a random selection of clothing items, OR a random selection of minions or plushie/beanbag items or stickers and whatever.

Personally, I think it would make it much easier to decide to buy one (and again, economic decisions regarding disposable income, for Americans, at least, are so not what they were even a month ago) and might, given that I think most people would go for the minions and wearables, raise the value of all of the other types of items as well, since I doubt there'd be as many as there are now. It would still be a random choice, but people would, I think, be more likely to spend what frivolous income they have since they'd have some measure of choice in what type bang they'd be getting for their buck.

I agree 100% with both statements quoted. If it worked like Kamil describes I would most likely find a way to scrounge together at least $5 a month (and most likely more than that). I could choose to open a "random minion" DP and a "random wearable" DP each month and know I was going to get items I either really wanted or at least could resell for a fair price...because I would be able to choose what category of DP I was buying. It would be worth it to me. As things are right now, it isn't worth the gamble of spending even $2.50 to maybe, possibly, probably not get an item I wanted. And like Kamil said, it would make the "dud" items hold their worth more effectively because not as many people would specifically choose to open "sticker" DPs or "plushie" DPs for example. People who collect those types of items would probably choose to get that type, but there wouldn't be this flood of "duds" that drive the market value down so drastically and so quickly.

Also, to echo what was said earlier, yes opening DPs is a gamble, but when the odds are so far against the player and so far for the "house" most people won't take that gamble. I have no doubt that Subeta's income has dropped off as of late. It almost has to have dropped off what with the economic crisis facing America where most of their user base is located. The DPs have become too risky for my taste and unless something changes about the way DPs are managed, I don't see that risk becoming any more palatable to me anytime soon. I'm sure others feel the same way too.

[covet]

Hahaha DPs aside, I just want to point out that it's a world economic crisis, not an American one (although your crisis is what's knocking a lot of others off the brink).

Britain has bailed its banks out by billions and is now plunging into recession, Iceland is near enough bankrupt as a country and all the other countries with investments there may lose them, Hungary is being bailed out by the IMF, France and Germany are in crisis talks, Japan's in trouble... really, apart from a few gulf states and noteable exceptions, everyone is worried.

Over here the news always calls it a global crisis, I'm not aware of how it's reported in the states.