Rank changes? NP ratio changes?

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Officer 1BDI
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Post by Officer 1BDI »

dandelions wrote:
the last thing we need is to make it harder for people to make NP on the site. The poor get poorer....
No. The <i>first</i> thing we want is for np-making to become more difficult. Games are an awful source of income for the economy as a whole because they make money without putting any money in. This is a direct cause of inflation- and, I would wager, the largest single cause of inflation on the site. Want to argue with that? Try and come up with a single activity on the site which generates that much NP out of nowhere.
I didn't mean to be argumentative. I do think that you're right about the inflation (I didn't really realize that when I typed my last post, which is stupid because I was on Subeta when they did it a few weeks ago).

I don't know what the answer is. I wish TNT would increase the supply of weapons and PBs, even just a little, to help ease the skyrocketing prices, but then there's problems with that as well (people angry that they paid more for an item that suddenly experienced a price drop, the "extra" NP in the economy still isn't taken care of, etc.).

I think my ultimate fear is that less NP will be coming into the economy, but prices will remain the same (or, Lord forbid, increase). Does it make sense from an economic standpoint? Not really, but I have trouble fathoming that ther players will start lowering prices just because fewer people can afford their item.
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dandelions
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Post by dandelions »

The thing is, I know they can disable them; they seemed to largely be relying on scout's honour to make people stop using them. It worked in many cases, and that might have been enough for them. They can't get rid of most of the sponsor links until the sponsor's contract with them expires, but after that there's nothing to stop them and I'm not sure why they didn't.

And I was wondering that, too- I know that right now, there aren't many of us making a mil a month profit (there's not that many even on neodaq.com) and a tiny, tiny number (I would wager less than 50 on the entire site) making more than about 2.5mil a month. Most people dump their money in and forget about it. If it becomes clearer to people just how easy it is, the commission is going to have to increase, or the run cycles might only take stocks up to, say, 40 as a matter of course, leaving them at 14 or below for longer.

edit, having just seen your post:
I think Subeta is a good example of why releasing more of an item doesn't necessarily help. Two main things happen:
- Usually, the short-term price drops sharply, and the people who had the item before lose out.
- Not long after, the long-term price increases, as hoarders buy up the items while the supply stops almost immediately. Users also begin to compete for the remaining ones, as they realise the situation is likely to revert to what it was before the release of these items.

A third effect, which Neopets is likely to be less vulnerable to, is this: on Subeta, users actually put the price <i>up</i> when they obtain a Token Shop potion. This is because the economy is small enough to be influenced by this. It's harder on Neopets, but possible (would involve an organised group of users buying up the items, because single people cannot raise prices to the extent they can on subeta).

Increasing circulation seems to increase greed, because demand still far outstrips supply. People don't seem to realise that things have not inflated as far as they could: people would still buy draik trans potions at 5mil, for example. Often, with items like maraquan pbs, there are none in auctions- people have the money to buy but there just aren't any. So if you put more into auctions, the people with money will still attempt to buy- but now they can (and need to) compete with each other. Prices do not go down, they go up.
daisybell
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Post by daisybell »

The only problem with adding up the amount of np released into the economy by games each day is that it doesn't take into account the scale of the Neopian economy as a whole. I would think that the billions of np people get from games is a tiny drop in the ocean compared to the amount of np that people have invested in stocks and in bank accounts and so on. I had that same problem when garmfay said that it was a good thing that TNT stopped the sponsor links from being written on petpages. Yes, it did allow a lot more np into the economy which can cause inflation. But was it really such a lot compared to the amount of np already hanging around?

The other issue with games not paying out as many np is that any other form of earning on Neopets needs np. So you stop the newest players from being able to invest in the stockmarket, restock and so on. And yes, the poor stay poor while the rich get richer. I have more np than I'm really sure what to do with at the moment- but then I bought my lab rays when I was short of np and it's only through having np that I've been able to do the stockmarket and therefore get the np that mean I'm not feeling short of funds. You can't invest if you can't leave your np there for a long time, which many newer players can't because they don't have a lot.

Another key point of the argument, that games cause np to come from nowhere, is not solely applicable to games- practically every other source of np except buying items on the TP and reselling involves np coming from nowhere- whether it's restocking (no one pays anyone to make the items or for the materials, which is what happens in a real life economy) or the stock market (again, nothing like the real life stockmarket, when your stock goes up to 60 it isn't as if the np have come from anywhere). Yes, you do spend some np buying things from Neopian shops and investing in the stock market, but compared to the gains you make it isn't much.

Unless you radically reinvent the economy (and I can't think how you would) then there will always be more currency coming into the economy than there will be going out, and yes, that causes inflation. It isn't a good model, basically, but then as it's a model that's wholly controlled by people (and the real world economy cannot be controlled like that) the problems can be controlled too. Is there any commodity in real life which is so sought after and yet so scarce as some bd weapons, draik morphing potions, paintbrushes? I can't think of any. Yet the fact that there is no reliable source of many of these things ensures that the price of the items goes up- how could it possibly go down? Yes, the players do influence the economy but in the end it is TNT who really are in charge and can choose how they handle inflation. After all, if they really were concerned about inflation of paintbrushes, they wouldn't release avatars making certain brushes even more sought after, and retire brushes from the hidden tower as they did with faerie.
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Wingsrising
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Post by Wingsrising »

No, restocking doesn't cause inflation. The items come out of nowhere, but the NP comes from other players. Items coming out of nowhere causes deflation, it's NP coming out of nowhere that causes inflation.

Bank interest does come out of nowhere but you have to have quite a bit of NP to begin with before it's a very large amount.

I strongly suspect that games are the biggest source of NP entering the economy because of the sheer number of people who play them: stocks create a lot more NP per person but I tend to agree that far fewer people were actually invested.

It's true that the Neopian economy can't be made non-inflationary but the level of inflation can certainly be adjusted.

**************************

I don't know that I buy the "you have to have NP to make NP" argument as far as the stock market is concerned. You have to have patience and willpower to make money in the stockmarket but even if you can't earn the 15k a day to buy stocks there are ways to self-grow a portfolio that take a relatively small amount of start-up funds. It just takes longer to build a portfolio up.

However, if too many people start investing in the stock market TNT will undoubtedly be forced to make it less profitable.

*************************

Note that TNT hasn't released any avatars requiring fancy PBs, etc. for a good long time now, to the point were people have been complaining about how few avatars they're releasing now. And, IIRC the retirement of the Faerie PB took place before I started playing Neopets, around 3.5 years ago now. The Darigan PB price hike (which I still think was a DREADFUL move on their part) was shortly after I joined. They haven't messed with the prices of any Hidden Tower PBs since then. I'm hoping maybe they've learned their lesson.
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dandelions
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Post by dandelions »

The thing about buying from Neopian shops is that it really does take money out of the economy, which is a very good thing- the stockmarket doesn't unless a stock goes bust, which hasn't happened in three years. The stockmarket is very bad for Neopets' economy, but despite it being a far worse source of inflation in theory, it can't be nearly as bad as games simply because there are so few people playing it. Looking at this poll:
Do you use the Stock Market / NEODAQ? (Open)
All The Time : 89,519
Rarely : 170,474
Huh? : 374,317
barely fifteen percent of those who answered said "all the time". This is taking into account the fact that the button to visit the stock market is right next to the poll itself.

Just because people make huge profits on restocking doesn't decrease its worth in reducing the amount of currency in circulation, and combined with quests (for lower-level rsing to work you need cheaper items to be in demand) it's the only significant means of getting money out. That has to happen in order for the value of neopoints to be controlled. Sure, there is probably well over a trillion neopoints in the economy (70 million users, needing just 11k each) but just because there's a lot of money already in there doesn't mean it's okay to allow inflationary np-generating methods. That results in a situation which is very difficult to fix.

(Restocking would actually be worse for the economy if it required people to produce the goods, in all probability, because the money wouldn't be taken out, it would circulate among an artificial "services" industry. Of course, all of Neopets is artificial, but...)
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Post by oogabooga »

The best way to take NP out of the economy might be to offer some features that cost a lot of NP (and that don't go to other users, but directly into the game). I can't really think of a good way to do that, though - they could offer ways to paint your pet or something, but price would be difficult to determine.

Most online games have this problem to some extent. The thing is, it's hard to get people to appreciate taking money away from them. Even if it leaves the economy in better shape, nobody wants to lose their own personal pile of wealth, or their personal favorite way of making money. I know the stockmarket is bad for inflation, because I don't even have to work to get money (unlike games) but if it was taken away, I'd be upset because it's my main source of income these days.

Restocking does take money out of the economy, but in many cases the price of the item is minuscule compared to the potential profits. Is the answer to raise prices? I don't think so - that might just increase the pace of inflation.

It's all kind of complicated and if I try to say anymore I'll just end up repeating other people.
dandelions wrote:Increasing circulation seems to increase greed, because demand still far outstrips supply. People don't seem to realise that things have not inflated as far as they could: people would still buy draik trans potions at 5mil, for example.
Interesting. I'd never considered that before, but I think you're absolutely right.
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Post by daisybell »

I think the only sensible way to deal with the draik trans thing would be to put something like a non-tradeable morphing 'ticket' in the hidden tower that turns your pet into one of the basic coloured draiks. That way you don't flood the market with lots more of the same item and devalue them, and you make it so that it's not worth hoarding at all (because of the non-tradeable aspect) but you also serve to cap some of the inflation issues surrounding the draik trans and morphing potions. But then perhaps that would make draiks "too easy to get" or "too common" for some people.
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Post by nanabobo567 »

Ah... I just had an idea. Some sort of a special "Pet Potion" available in the Hidden Tower. It costs... I dunno, a lot... But when drunk, your pet will become whatever pet who's day it is. If it isn't a pet day, it'll just say it had no effect. Probably a bad idea, but it'd take a bit out of the economy. If not, how about Colour Insurance? If you pay something like 10k a month, your account is insured for the rest of the month that Boochie, invisible, splash of colour, Blue, Red, etc. doesn't happen to it. I dunno, something like that.
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Post by Huggles »

I would happily, well not so happily but I'd would, pay for color changing RE insurance. Note, not Pant Devil or other Item or np stealing REs, but color changing. I figure painting your pet is akin to putting neopoints in the bank. Once you've done it, it should be safe until you choose to take a risk. That would mean taking np out of the bank or zapping your pet and not just making it active to interact with it. For all five accounts, that'd be 50k a month. I could deal with 100k a month. And there's still that fifth pet slot I'd pay a million np for, even if it expired after a month like on Subeta.

I'm simply leary of anything TNT does for...well, any reason really. I do not trust them to do the right thing until 6 months after they've already done it, and even then I'm suspicious.
The best way to take NP out of the economy might be to offer some features that cost a lot of NP (and that don't go to other users, but directly into the game).
Agreed. I can't think of anything offhand, but if it's one thing that a whole lot of players care about it's status. For example, feeding kadoaties earns you nothing but status symbols; namely, an avatar and a trophy. Money sink. Avatars can potentially become one of the biggest money sinks. The Lever of Doom is the perfect way to con players into giving away their np for next to nothing.

The only thing that readily comes to mine are the defunct neoschools. You'd require items like books and things for your pets, but would have to pay np to take courses or buy untradable supplies like potion ingredients from Sophie to advance. The reward could be something as simple as a trophy linking to a pet's report card on their lookup or a mention in the news for the best students. I'm sure if they gave it some earnest thought, they could come up with something shiny, not Neoschools because they are DEAD AND GONE, for us to throw np into with reckless abandon.
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